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Romanian government analysts lower 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.3%


Romania‘s economic output was revised downwards to an estimated 4.3% for 2022, finance ministry analysts said on Wednesday, compared to their previous forecast of 4.6% growth made in November, according to See News.

“The revision reflects rising inflation in the fourth quarter 2021, as well as the fifth wave of the pandemic and the energy prices crisis,” the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP), an analyst unit within the finance ministry, said in a document published on its website. It does not take into account a potential conflict caused by geopolitical tensions on the border with Ukraine.

Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to total 1.314 trillion lei (266 billion euro) this year.

“In 2022, Romania’s economy will be boosted by 3.6% annual growth in final household consumption,” said CNSP.

Agriculture is expected to rise by an annual 3.1%, services will grow by 4% and industry will expand by 4.1% in 2021, while construction is forecast to add an annual 9.6%.

Exports of goods and services are expected to grow by 14% in 2022, as imports are seen increasing by the same margin.

The analysts also said they expect, on average, inflation of 9.5% for end-2022 and 3% for end-2023. Romania’s consumer prices rose by 8.35% year-on-year in January, compared to an increase of 8.19% in December, according to national statistical office data.

For 2023, the analysts at CNSP expect the economy to expand by 5.1%, compared to a previous forecasts of 5.3%.