The National Statistics Institute (INS) announced on Tuesday that Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2021 was 2.8% higher than in the last quarter of 2020, marking the third consecutive quarter of recovery after the 11.8% quarter-on-quarter drop recorded in the second quarter of 2020 amid the state of emergency and the lockdown.
Romania’s GDP recorded a 0.2% decline (in gross terms) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, according to a press release.
The analysts see the flash report released by INS as positive and expect the economic growth for the full year to beat the previous estimates.
“One thing is certain, as we speak, the economy is above pre-pandemic levels! This is about one quarter earlier than we had envisaged and paves the way for a GDP growth rate in 2021 that could dwarf even our optimistic 5.5% forecast,” said ING Bank chief economist Valentin Tataru in a note.
“As the retail, construction and industrial sectors have not necessarily posted impressive numbers in the first quarter, we suspect that the main growth drivers have been related to the public sector and possibly agriculture. The latter could benefit from positive base effects in 2021 after a very weak 2020. We will, however, wait for the growth details before redoing the maths and consider revising our forecast,” added Tataru.