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Investment banks ramp up ECB rate hike forecasts

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BofA Securities now expects the European Central Bank to hike interest rates by 150 basis points this year including 50 bps moves in July and September, it said in a note distributed on Monday, according Reuters.

The bank, which previously expected 100 bps of hikes this year, said last week’s euro zone inflation print, which came in far higher than expected at 8.1%, was confirmation that 100 bps was the minimum the bank would deliver.

“Our call was already more hawkish than consensus, and is even more so now. We continue to worry this is too much too fast,” analysts said in the note.

In a separate note, Barclays said on Monday that it now expects the ECB to hike in 25 bps increments at each meeting from July to December.

It expects one more hike after that in the first quarter of next year, which would take the ECB’s depo rate to 0.75%.

The ECB last hiked interest rates in 2011 and its depo rate is currently at -0.50%.

Money markets currently price in over 130 bps hikes by year-end, with a 50 bps move at a single meeting fully priced in by October.