Deutsche Bank: Germany’s GDP will grow by 1.4% in 2015. What is at stake for the EU?

Germany is the largest economy in the European Union and the main destination for Romanian exports

basescu-udrea germany

The evolution of Germany’s GDP in 2015 was positively revised from 1 to 1.5%, according to a report by Deutsche Bank.

The forecast is based on the following factors – lower oil prices and the devaluation of the Euro against the Dollar at a faster pace than predicted.

Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and in Europe. A relevant economic growth would be a positive sign for Eurozone’s ability to get out of quasi-stagnation.

In 2014, Germany was the main market for Romanian exports – approximately 10 billion EUR, from a total of 50 billion.

Deutsche Bank shows that public budgets are likely to have a surplus again in 2015. The current account surplus will rise by 8% of the GDP.

Therefore, it is likely that Germany will be the target of further pressures within the EU to use its fiscal maneuvering room to promote a public investment plan, which would increase consumption and imports – a growth opportunity for the other states.

Many observers see Germany as having a central role in the Eurozone – both economically and politically. Therefore, investors are especially interested in the way in which the Government is positioning itself, and in the political dynamics. (…) Germans’ distrust in the European Central Bank (ECB) is at a record high. Economic explanations do not see an imminent risk for deflation, and, moreover, dispute the ECB’s ability to stimulate the growth. The polemical debate about quantitative easing is perceived as a risk whose effect could be the strengthening of Eurosceptic forces. Regional elections in February could give a signal about the validity of these concerns

Deutsche Bank