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luni, 20 septembrie 2021 - 14:34

CFA Romania: 5.8% economic growth projected for 2021


Romania’s Chartered Financial Analysts Association, CFA Romania said on Monday it projects a 5.8% growth rate for Romania’s economy for 2021 and a budget deficit of 6.2% of GDP, while the time horizon for Romania’s joining the eurozone is 2030, according to Agerpres.

In a monthly survey conducted by CFA Romania, the organisation seeks to quantify the financial analysts’ expectations for Romania’s economic activity over the last year through the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The majority of respondents (over 77%) expect the crisis to be felt in 2022 and the largest share (35%) anticipate its impact until the second quarter of 2022.

The public debt will reach about 52% of GDP over the next 12-months and the projected inflation rate for the year stands at 4.11% on average, with over 74% of the participants expecting it to rise in the next 12 months.

“The euro/leu exchange rate, over 93% of the respondents predict a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the current value) as follows: the average expectation over the next 6-months is 4.9741, and for the next, 12-months it is expected to reach 5.0261,” said CFA Romania.

According to the release, 80% of the survey participants predict an increase in the money market interest rates (three-month ROBOR), none pointing to a reduction of this rate; also, 77% of the participants expect a rise in interest rates for 5 and 10-year maturity. For the second month in a row, about 60% of the participants anticipate an increase in residential property prices over the next 12 months. 

The CFA Romania Association’s Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased in June to 76.2 points from the previous month, being one point below the all-time high; compared to the same month of the year before, the indicator increased by 42.1 points, due to the advance of both its components.